快樂的心境 by 梁慶生
在日常生活中，人們想要過得快樂、幸福，就要保持有個好的心境，好心境能使生活充滿愛與美，是快樂的源泉。
對此我頗有感受。記得有一天吃罷晚飯，和老伴坐公車到中文學校看演出，享受老年半價優惠，一張票往返只要一元五角錢。
投完幣拿到卡時，司機看我們一眼，用英文問了一句：「滿六十歲了嗎？」開始我沒聽懂，因為平時乘車從來沒有哪個司機這樣問過，見我們沒反應，司機又問了一遍。我們感到很不高興，坐定後老伴小聲對我說：「他是不是以為我們冒充長者騙錢？」我沉思了片刻，對老伴說：「也許司機不是這個意思，我們吃晚飯時喝了兩杯德國啤酒，正是滿面泛著紅光，司機把我們當成年輕人了。」老伴聽後看我一眼，覺得也是，於是我們彼此會心一笑。其實外邊的世界沒什麼不同，不同的是我們的心境。
有一天我到中國超市買了一條活蹦亂跳的鮭魚，四磅多重。鮭魚很貴，平時很少吃，晚飯由我親自主廚，進行紅燒。女兒六點下班，路上走二十分鐘，接到女兒下班的電話，我開始做魚，女兒到家時剛做好，趁熱能吃。
可是，接到女兒電話後，五十多分鐘還沒看到人，眼睜睜地看著餐桌上一盤色澤鮮豔、熱氣騰騰、香氣四溢的紅燒鮭魚暗淡失色。我拿起手機給女兒打電話，女兒說剛打完電話離開單位後，突然想到家裡沒有雞蛋和牛奶了，到商店拐了一趟，正在回家的路上。
當時我有點生氣，老伴大概看到我的表情，一把奪過我的電話，對女兒說：「別急，別急，下班路上車多。你爸做的魚涼了，他把電話遞給我，給你熱魚去了。」
此時我領悟到，我們也可以把女兒批評一頓，她不能按時到家，也沒有打電話告訴家裡，讓鮭魚涼了；我們也可以體諒一下女兒，工作了一天，下班了還要為家裡的生活操勞。關鍵是要有個好心境。
還有一次，我們為小孫女辦生日會。一對夫婦朋友晚到了近一個小時，一般人不免要生氣。當時我想，總是家裡臨時出了緊急狀況走不開，要不就是路上塞車。結果這對夫婦來後，又是自責，又是道歉，反倒把氣氛搞得更活躍起來。
對啊！幹麼要把事情想得那麼糟呢。這倒使我想起一件事來，幾年前曾見到一家賣甜甜圈的商店，門口的看板上寫著：「快樂者和悲觀者之間的差別十分微妙：快樂者看到的是甜甜圈；而悲觀者看到的則是甜甜圈中間的小空洞。」這則小幽默廣告，透露了快樂的本質。事實上人們眼睛看到的，往往並非事物全貌，只看見自己尋求的東西。要活得快樂，就要保持好的心境。
Saturday, January 3, 2015
20150102=幹細胞隨機突變…患癌症 2/3是運氣差 by 編譯胡毓玲
幹細胞隨機突變…患癌症 2/3是運氣差 by 編譯胡毓玲
傳統思維下，罹癌與否和家族病史有相當大的關係，但一份新研究卻徹底顛覆這個觀念，說之所以罹患癌症，是「運氣不好」。這份研究指出，高達三分之二的癌症，是由幹細胞分裂引起「隨機突變」造成，與家族病史或不良生活習慣關聯有限。
華爾街日報報導，約翰霍普金斯大學（Johns Hopkins）醫學院在「科學」（Science）期刊2日發表的最新研究報告指出，總體而言，人體幹細胞分裂時隨機發生的基因突變，「是罹癌主因，比遺傳或外在環境更重要」。這項研究發現，成人癌症約三分之二肇因於細胞分裂時發生隨機突變，其餘三分之一才是環境或遺傳基因導致。但學者認為，民眾仍應建立健康生活習慣，才能降低罹癌風險。
約翰霍普金斯醫學院 量化3因素
這份名為「罹癌的惡運」(The bad luck of cancer)，由約翰霍普金斯醫學院腫瘤學教授沃格斯坦(Bert Vogelstein)和生物數學助理教授托馬塞蒂(Cristian Tomasetti)聯合發表。沃格斯坦指出：「所有癌症皆由運氣、環境和遺傳等三項因素造成，我們建立一個模組，有助量化此三項因素如何導致癌症生成。」
研究團隊從已發表科學研究中找出數種幹細胞，針對乳房與攝護腺以外的31種組織類型，比較這些組織內幹細胞的分裂率，與美國人一生中這些組織罹癌風險之間的關連。
結果顯示，包含白血病、胰臟癌、睪丸癌、骨癌、卵巢癌與腦癌在內的22種癌症主因為隨機突變，比率高達三分之二；至於大腸癌、皮膚癌、肺癌等其餘九種癌症，主要受遺傳與高風險環境與致癌物影響，僅占三分之一，顛覆傳統醫界觀念。
沃格斯坦表示，研究抽菸或其他不佳的生活型態因素會使罹癌風險增加，「然而許多類型癌症的主因為癌症驅動基因突變的壞運，與生活型態和遺傳因素無關」。
及早發現 成為治療關鍵
托馬塞蒂強調，皮膚癌與肺癌等癌症，與環境因子有直接關聯，有些老菸槍或過度日曬者之所以沒得癌症，只是因為運氣好，人們切勿因為這項結果而開始大量吸菸、飲酒或曬日光浴，保持良好生活習慣仍相當重要。
這項研究顯示「單純改變生活型態」並無法有效抗癌，研究人員表示，由於多數罹癌出於隨機，及早發現與治療成為關鍵，因此開發新檢查技術應屬重點。
傳統思維下，罹癌與否和家族病史有相當大的關係，但一份新研究卻徹底顛覆這個觀念，說之所以罹患癌症，是「運氣不好」。這份研究指出，高達三分之二的癌症，是由幹細胞分裂引起「隨機突變」造成，與家族病史或不良生活習慣關聯有限。
華爾街日報報導，約翰霍普金斯大學（Johns Hopkins）醫學院在「科學」（Science）期刊2日發表的最新研究報告指出，總體而言，人體幹細胞分裂時隨機發生的基因突變，「是罹癌主因，比遺傳或外在環境更重要」。這項研究發現，成人癌症約三分之二肇因於細胞分裂時發生隨機突變，其餘三分之一才是環境或遺傳基因導致。但學者認為，民眾仍應建立健康生活習慣，才能降低罹癌風險。
約翰霍普金斯醫學院 量化3因素
這份名為「罹癌的惡運」(The bad luck of cancer)，由約翰霍普金斯醫學院腫瘤學教授沃格斯坦(Bert Vogelstein)和生物數學助理教授托馬塞蒂(Cristian Tomasetti)聯合發表。沃格斯坦指出：「所有癌症皆由運氣、環境和遺傳等三項因素造成，我們建立一個模組，有助量化此三項因素如何導致癌症生成。」
研究團隊從已發表科學研究中找出數種幹細胞，針對乳房與攝護腺以外的31種組織類型，比較這些組織內幹細胞的分裂率，與美國人一生中這些組織罹癌風險之間的關連。
結果顯示，包含白血病、胰臟癌、睪丸癌、骨癌、卵巢癌與腦癌在內的22種癌症主因為隨機突變，比率高達三分之二；至於大腸癌、皮膚癌、肺癌等其餘九種癌症，主要受遺傳與高風險環境與致癌物影響，僅占三分之一，顛覆傳統醫界觀念。
沃格斯坦表示，研究抽菸或其他不佳的生活型態因素會使罹癌風險增加，「然而許多類型癌症的主因為癌症驅動基因突變的壞運，與生活型態和遺傳因素無關」。
及早發現 成為治療關鍵
托馬塞蒂強調，皮膚癌與肺癌等癌症，與環境因子有直接關聯，有些老菸槍或過度日曬者之所以沒得癌症，只是因為運氣好，人們切勿因為這項結果而開始大量吸菸、飲酒或曬日光浴，保持良好生活習慣仍相當重要。
這項研究顯示「單純改變生活型態」並無法有效抗癌，研究人員表示，由於多數罹癌出於隨機，及早發現與治療成為關鍵，因此開發新檢查技術應屬重點。
Friday, January 2, 2015
夕陽紅
夕陽紅
當今醫學發達，預防醫學昌明，人們著重保健，七、八十歲不算老，九十、一百不稀奇。如何過好晚年，成了人生一大課題。我年將八十，雖為獨居，子孫也不就近住，但我能坦然無懼，生活充實。如何過好晚年，以下四點與大眾分享。
一、心理健康：孔子說，長壽秘訣在於心情開朗。我每天早上睜開眼，第一件事就是為仍能活著而感恩。此時，我覺得自己精力充沛地迎接新的一天，興致十足地梳洗、整理內務進入新的一天。
我深知年紀大了，對生老病死要看得開。身體如機器，用了八十年了，哪有不疲勞。白髮吧，乃榮耀之冠冕；皺紋吧，是歲月留痕；疾病吧，要修補；死亡吧，只求壽終正寢。祈望追悼會上，能有多點後輩的肯定，如此這般足矣，瀟灑走一回。
二、身體健康：我注重自己的儀容，穿著整齊、明亮，穿得合身、舒適。穿得好，自信心都多些。別人的讚賞，則是與人同樂。飲食方面，我每頓只吃七分飽，遵守早餐吃得好，午餐吃得飽，晚餐吃得少。晚上睡前有時多喝一杯奶，體重保持在標準線上，人人讚我身材好，自然感覺身輕如燕。
我八年前入住老人廉租屋，老人廉租屋租金少、服務好、朋友廣、活動多。而且老人獨立生活，還能給下一代更多的空間。至於行，每每打開報紙的旅行版，有一種熟識的感覺。因為我在退休前已喜愛旅遊，或多或少，走過世界三大洲。美東、美西、本土、外島，以及美西七大國家公園、灣區一日遊，都有我的足跡。旅行中雖累，但能增廣見聞，心胸自是開朗。
我每天早晨走一個街口，一口氣登上山頂公園，大口呼吸新鮮空氣，跟著大夥做健身操六十節，身心都受益。當然，有病應就醫，並謹記，預防勝於治療。
三、人際關係：將心比人。誠懇待人是交友的第一步，而將心比心又謂換位思考，感同身受。要有憐憫心，多一點付出，並且認知施比受更有福。最重要的是與子女的關係，要心胸豁達，善於體諒。我的子孫雖不常來探我，但是他們在婚前都會專程來見我，這種尊重，夫復何求。
四、充實生活：義工不求回報的付出，是美國人生活的一部分，是值得自豪的高尚情操。我在教會侍奉十四年，在大廈住客聯誼會事工已六年，每星期從一至五，或多或少有固定工作。除了做義工打發時間，還要有個人愛好，讀書看報增廣見聞，搓衛生麻將以動腦筋，晨早堅持晨運以動筋骨，晚上看看連續劇，走進別人的世界。
願天下太平，長者安居。夕陽無限好，哪怕近黃昏。
一、心理健康：孔子說，長壽秘訣在於心情開朗。我每天早上睜開眼，第一件事就是為仍能活著而感恩。此時，我覺得自己精力充沛地迎接新的一天，興致十足地梳洗、整理內務進入新的一天。
我深知年紀大了，對生老病死要看得開。身體如機器，用了八十年了，哪有不疲勞。白髮吧，乃榮耀之冠冕；皺紋吧，是歲月留痕；疾病吧，要修補；死亡吧，只求壽終正寢。祈望追悼會上，能有多點後輩的肯定，如此這般足矣，瀟灑走一回。
二、身體健康：我注重自己的儀容，穿著整齊、明亮，穿得合身、舒適。穿得好，自信心都多些。別人的讚賞，則是與人同樂。飲食方面，我每頓只吃七分飽，遵守早餐吃得好，午餐吃得飽，晚餐吃得少。晚上睡前有時多喝一杯奶，體重保持在標準線上，人人讚我身材好，自然感覺身輕如燕。
我八年前入住老人廉租屋，老人廉租屋租金少、服務好、朋友廣、活動多。而且老人獨立生活，還能給下一代更多的空間。至於行，每每打開報紙的旅行版，有一種熟識的感覺。因為我在退休前已喜愛旅遊，或多或少，走過世界三大洲。美東、美西、本土、外島，以及美西七大國家公園、灣區一日遊，都有我的足跡。旅行中雖累，但能增廣見聞，心胸自是開朗。
我每天早晨走一個街口，一口氣登上山頂公園，大口呼吸新鮮空氣，跟著大夥做健身操六十節，身心都受益。當然，有病應就醫，並謹記，預防勝於治療。
三、人際關係：將心比人。誠懇待人是交友的第一步，而將心比心又謂換位思考，感同身受。要有憐憫心，多一點付出，並且認知施比受更有福。最重要的是與子女的關係，要心胸豁達，善於體諒。我的子孫雖不常來探我，但是他們在婚前都會專程來見我，這種尊重，夫復何求。
四、充實生活：義工不求回報的付出，是美國人生活的一部分，是值得自豪的高尚情操。我在教會侍奉十四年，在大廈住客聯誼會事工已六年，每星期從一至五，或多或少有固定工作。除了做義工打發時間，還要有個人愛好，讀書看報增廣見聞，搓衛生麻將以動腦筋，晨早堅持晨運以動筋骨，晚上看看連續劇，走進別人的世界。
願天下太平，長者安居。夕陽無限好，哪怕近黃昏。
Thursday, January 1, 2015
20140214=3 ETFs You Can Love Forever=VIG MOAT SCHV
3 ETFs You Can Love Forever=VIG MOAT SCHV
ETFs have revolutionized the way we invest. With their low cost, ease of trading, tax-efficiency and transparency, they have surged in popularity in recent years. There are currently 1,567 exchange traded products listed in the U.S., with almost $1.7 trillion in assets under management.
ETFs now represent 15% of all trading in the market. There are some ETFs that are suitable for short-term market timing strategies. At the same time, there are a number of excellent ETF options for long-term, buy-and-hold investors. (Read: Best ETF Strategies for 2014)
What should investors consider before investing in ETFs for long-term? Here are some factors investors should look at for narrowing down to the best ETFs, of course in addition to their investment objectives.
Are Cheaper Funds Better?
Expense ratios are an important factor in the return of an ETF and in the long-term, cheaper funds can significantly outperform their more expensive cousins, other things remaining the same. (Read: 3 Biggest Mistakes of ETF Investing)
The difference in total returns between high cost and low cost ETFs (after deducting expenses) becomes very significant as we increase the holding period. In additon to expense ratios, investors should also look at trading costs but they are not so significant for buy-and-hold investments.
What Index does the ETF track?
Make sure that the index the ETF tracks is simple and transparent. You may want to avoid ETFs tracking exotic indexes or risky strategies, unless you are a professional trader. Similarly, ETFs with a very narrow focus—such as livestock futures—are not meant for long-term investors.
Issuer and Assets under Management
Low AUM is often one of the reasons for fund closure. Generally ETFs with less than $50 million in assets are not profitable enough for their sponsors.
ETFs now represent 15% of all trading in the market. There are some ETFs that are suitable for short-term market timing strategies. At the same time, there are a number of excellent ETF options for long-term, buy-and-hold investors. (Read: Best ETF Strategies for 2014)
What should investors consider before investing in ETFs for long-term? Here are some factors investors should look at for narrowing down to the best ETFs, of course in addition to their investment objectives.
Are Cheaper Funds Better?
Expense ratios are an important factor in the return of an ETF and in the long-term, cheaper funds can significantly outperform their more expensive cousins, other things remaining the same. (Read: 3 Biggest Mistakes of ETF Investing)
The difference in total returns between high cost and low cost ETFs (after deducting expenses) becomes very significant as we increase the holding period. In additon to expense ratios, investors should also look at trading costs but they are not so significant for buy-and-hold investments.
What Index does the ETF track?
Make sure that the index the ETF tracks is simple and transparent. You may want to avoid ETFs tracking exotic indexes or risky strategies, unless you are a professional trader. Similarly, ETFs with a very narrow focus—such as livestock futures—are not meant for long-term investors.
Issuer and Assets under Management
Low AUM is often one of the reasons for fund closure. Generally ETFs with less than $50 million in assets are not profitable enough for their sponsors.
Similarly, investors should look at the sponsor too. An ETF issued by a strong, profitable sponsor is less likely to shut down.
Inverse and Leveraged ETFs
They offer some excellent options for market timing and hedging but they are not suitable for long-term holding. Similarly ETFs that track futures contracts are not meant for buy-and-hold investors due to issues like contango. (Read: 3 Niche ETFs that will keep flying)
Below we have highlighted 3 excellent ETFs that are excellent for long-term holding.
Watch Your capital Grow with Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG - ETF report)
Dividend stocks and ETFs have experienced some headwinds since the start of taper talk, but investors need to remember that dividends have accounted for more than 40% of the total returns from the market over a long time horizon and thus they should be a part of any long-term investment portfolio.
Further dividend payments are expected to continue to increase in the coming months as most large US companies have huge cash piles on their balance sheet and are in a position to increase payouts to shareholders.
However, in my view, ETFs that hold stocks with a high dividend growth potential have much better outlook compared with ETFs that focus on high dividend yielding stocks. Most high-yield ETFs focus on sectors that are likely to underperform in the rising rates environment.
VIG holds large high quality companies that have a record of increasing dividends for at least 10 years.
Current top holdings include Abbott Labs, PepsiCo, Proctor& Gamble and Coca-Cola. With its current strong focus on cyclical sectors like consumer goods/services industrials and energy, this ETF is poised to do well if the economy in general and labor markets in particular continue to improve. It has miniscule exposure to rate sensitive sectors like Utilities and Telecom.
With an expense ratio of 0.10%, this is one of the cheapest funds in this space. The dividend yield at 2.2% is not remarkable, but this fund is better suited for investors who seek long-term capital appreciation along with income and not just high current yield.
The ETF made its debut way back in 2006 and now manages more than $23 billion in assets.
VIG is a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) ETF.
Invest like Warren Buffet with Market Vectors Wide Moat ETF (MOAT - ETF report)
The term “economic moat” was popularized by Warren Buffet who said that he seeks "economic castles protected by unbreachable 'moats'.” In simple words moat is a unique competitive advantage that allows a company to outperform others in the same industry over time.
Thanks to MOAT, investors can now own a diversified group of such potential winners. Launched in April 2012, MOAT now has $600 million in assets which are invested in equal-weighted exposure in 20 least-expensive wide-moat companies. These are mostly large-cap companies with sustainable competitive advantage in their respective industries.
MOAT has highest allocation to technology sector (25%), followed by healthcare (21%) and energy (15%). With an expense ratio of 49 basis points, this product is expensive compared with two others on this list, but with its excellent investment strategy, it is poised to deliver solid returns to investors.
The index strategy has worked in the longer term. In five years through December 2013, the Moat index had an average annual return of 22.72% versus 17.94% for the S&P index. The ETF has also beaten the broader market since inception.
Enjoy Value Premium with Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Value ETF (SCHV)
Numerous academic studies have shown that value stocks have delivered higher returns with lower volatility compared with growth stocks over the long term in almost all the markets studied. Given their proven performance over long term, value stocks and funds should be a predominant part of any ‘core’ portfolio.
SCHV provides broad exposure to large-cap U.S. stocks with value style characteristics. Launched in December 2009, the fund has so far been able to attract assets worth $810 million, which are invested in 359 holdings.
With an annual fee of just 7 basis points, this product is the cheapest option in the large-cap value space. Additionally, the dividend yield at 2.3% is quite attractive. Financials (24%), Consumer Staples (11%), Energy (11%) and Consumer Discretionary (11%) are the top four sectors, the fund has invested in.
SCHV is a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) ETF.
Bottom Line
Investment advisers often warn--“don’t fall in love with a stock”. Does that apply to ETFs as well? Usually not, since ETFs with their diversified holdings eliminate company-specific risk to a large extent.
ETFs discussed above are excellent options for buy-and-hold investors. There is nothing not to love about them.
Inverse and Leveraged ETFs
They offer some excellent options for market timing and hedging but they are not suitable for long-term holding. Similarly ETFs that track futures contracts are not meant for buy-and-hold investors due to issues like contango. (Read: 3 Niche ETFs that will keep flying)
Below we have highlighted 3 excellent ETFs that are excellent for long-term holding.
Watch Your capital Grow with Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG - ETF report)
Dividend stocks and ETFs have experienced some headwinds since the start of taper talk, but investors need to remember that dividends have accounted for more than 40% of the total returns from the market over a long time horizon and thus they should be a part of any long-term investment portfolio.
Further dividend payments are expected to continue to increase in the coming months as most large US companies have huge cash piles on their balance sheet and are in a position to increase payouts to shareholders.
However, in my view, ETFs that hold stocks with a high dividend growth potential have much better outlook compared with ETFs that focus on high dividend yielding stocks. Most high-yield ETFs focus on sectors that are likely to underperform in the rising rates environment.
VIG holds large high quality companies that have a record of increasing dividends for at least 10 years.
Current top holdings include Abbott Labs, PepsiCo, Proctor& Gamble and Coca-Cola. With its current strong focus on cyclical sectors like consumer goods/services industrials and energy, this ETF is poised to do well if the economy in general and labor markets in particular continue to improve. It has miniscule exposure to rate sensitive sectors like Utilities and Telecom.
With an expense ratio of 0.10%, this is one of the cheapest funds in this space. The dividend yield at 2.2% is not remarkable, but this fund is better suited for investors who seek long-term capital appreciation along with income and not just high current yield.
The ETF made its debut way back in 2006 and now manages more than $23 billion in assets.
VIG is a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) ETF.
Invest like Warren Buffet with Market Vectors Wide Moat ETF (MOAT - ETF report)
The term “economic moat” was popularized by Warren Buffet who said that he seeks "economic castles protected by unbreachable 'moats'.” In simple words moat is a unique competitive advantage that allows a company to outperform others in the same industry over time.
Thanks to MOAT, investors can now own a diversified group of such potential winners. Launched in April 2012, MOAT now has $600 million in assets which are invested in equal-weighted exposure in 20 least-expensive wide-moat companies. These are mostly large-cap companies with sustainable competitive advantage in their respective industries.
MOAT has highest allocation to technology sector (25%), followed by healthcare (21%) and energy (15%). With an expense ratio of 49 basis points, this product is expensive compared with two others on this list, but with its excellent investment strategy, it is poised to deliver solid returns to investors.
The index strategy has worked in the longer term. In five years through December 2013, the Moat index had an average annual return of 22.72% versus 17.94% for the S&P index. The ETF has also beaten the broader market since inception.
Enjoy Value Premium with Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Value ETF (SCHV)
Numerous academic studies have shown that value stocks have delivered higher returns with lower volatility compared with growth stocks over the long term in almost all the markets studied. Given their proven performance over long term, value stocks and funds should be a predominant part of any ‘core’ portfolio.
SCHV provides broad exposure to large-cap U.S. stocks with value style characteristics. Launched in December 2009, the fund has so far been able to attract assets worth $810 million, which are invested in 359 holdings.
With an annual fee of just 7 basis points, this product is the cheapest option in the large-cap value space. Additionally, the dividend yield at 2.3% is quite attractive. Financials (24%), Consumer Staples (11%), Energy (11%) and Consumer Discretionary (11%) are the top four sectors, the fund has invested in.
SCHV is a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) ETF.
Bottom Line
Investment advisers often warn--“don’t fall in love with a stock”. Does that apply to ETFs as well? Usually not, since ETFs with their diversified holdings eliminate company-specific risk to a large extent.
ETFs discussed above are excellent options for buy-and-hold investors. There is nothing not to love about them.
20140522=7 ETFs to Hold Forever-VTI VXUS VIG VXF VBR VWO
20140522=7
ETFs to Hold Forever
You can buy these
exchange-traded index funds and never have to worry about replacing them.
Read more at http://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T022-C007-S001-7-etfs-to-hold-forever.html#M02Bu8yxq0ljtejA.99
Warren Buffett, probably the best stock investor of the past 50
years, made a big splash recently when he revealed that he has requested that
90% of his wife’s share of his estate upon his death be invested in a low-cost
fund that tracks Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index.
Buffett is nobody’s fool. It’s difficult, though hardly
impossible—as his own example shows—to beat index funds. With index funds,
you’re practically guaranteed to beat roughly two-thirds of actively managed
stock funds over the long term. What’s more, picking among stocks or actively
managed stock funds takes work and skill. Most people would rather invest in a
portfolio of index funds—and get on with their lives—without having to
constantly reevaluate their investments.
SEE ALSO: Don’t Bet Against Warren
Buffett
Where I
part with Buffett is on his choice of index funds. The S&P 500 is a
fine index, but stocks of large U.S. companies dominate it. Why not put your
money in a better, more diversified portfolio? Diversification, after all, is
the one free lunch in investing. Owning index funds that invest in small and
midsize companies, as well as in foreign stocks, can boost your potential
return.
Below
are seven exchange-traded funds you can buy and hold for a lifetime. I’ve made some tweaks from a similar story I wrote a year ago; if
you bought based on that piece, the tweaks are optional. All my picks are from
Vanguard because its index funds cost little and are reliable—that is, they do
an excellent job of tracking their benchmarks. I’ve provided the symbols for
the seven exchange-traded funds, but it makes no difference whether you invest
in the ETFs or the Vanguard mutual funds’ Admiral shares, which require a
$10,000 minimum investment; you’ll pay the same minuscule expenses. If you buy
the ETFs or regular funds from a brokerage firm instead of from Vanguard
directly, you may also have to pay commissions.
This
portfolio is designed for long-term, buy-and-hold investors. It’s not intended
to be my best picks for the current market.
Indeed, just now I wouldn’t invest much of anything in stocks of companies with
small capitalizations; they’re expensive relative to stocks of large companies.
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), 34% of the stock portfolio, tracks the CRSP U.S. Total Stock Market index, which covers the entire U.S. stock market. This fund has 19% of its assets in midsize companies and 9% in small caps. By comparison, the S&P 500 has 12% in mid caps and nothing in small caps. As with all the funds in this article, stocks are weighted by market value (share price times number of shares outstanding). The largest holding is Apple (AAPL), with 2.3% of assets. The average market value of the fund’s holdings is $37 billion. The fund yields 1.9%; expenses are a mere 0.05% annually.
Vanguard Total International Stock Index ETF (VXUS), 22% of the stock portfolio, is the foreign twin of the ETF described above. It reflects the FTSE Global All Cap ex US index. Average market value is $21 billion. Developed markets account for 86% of the fund’s assets, emerging markets the rest. Large companies dominate the fund, but 17% is in mid caps and 3% is in small caps. The ETF yields 2.8% and charges 0.14% annually.
Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index ETF (VIG), 12% of the stock portfolio, invests only in
companies that have hiked dividends in each of the past ten years. It tracks
the Nasdaq Dividend Achievers index, which also weeds out companies that fail
tests of financial strength—chiefly because they have too much debt. Despite
the dividend focus, this fund is not a high yielder; it yields just 2.0%, about
the same as the S&P 500. Admittedly, Dividend Appreciation is an
unusual index fund, but I’ve included it because of growing academic evidence that
high-quality stocks—blue chips with attractive profit margins and
dividends—have excelled over the long term. Annual expenses are 0.10%.
Vanguard Extended Market Index ETF (VXF), 12% of the stock portfolio, tracks the
S&P Completion index. The fund owns pretty much every tradable U.S. public
company, excluding penny stocks and the like, that the S&P 500 doesn’t own. Since 1926, small caps have
returned an average of two percentage points per year more than large
companies—albeit with greater volatility. All but 6% of this ETF is invested in
mid caps and small caps. It charges 0.10% annually.
Vanguard Small Cap Value ETF (VBR), 12% of the stock portfolio, invests in
small, undervalued companies by tracking the CRSP US Small Cap Value index.
Research shows that small stocks and cheap stocks (those that are inexpensive
in relation to earnings and other key measures) have delivered above-average
returns over the long term. The average market value of this ETF is $2.7
billion. It charges 0.09% annually.
Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index ETF (VWO), 8% of the stock portfolio, tracks the FTSE
Emerging Markets index, which includes 850 stocks from 22 developing countries.
Emerging markets have trailed U.S. stocks badly since late 2011, but, in my
view, that doesn’t mean these fast-growing economies don’t deserve to be among
your long-term investments. The fund charges 0.15% annually. What’s in this
stock portfolio, and how has it performed? Overall, it has 17% of its assets in
small caps and 24% in mid caps. Foreign stocks account for 30% of assets, of
which one-third is in emerging markets. Over the past ten years through April
30, the portfolio returned an annualized 9.0%. By contrast, the S&P 500 returned an annualized 7.7% during the
same stretch.
The seventh ETF is a
bond fund. I’d invest in Vanguard Intermediate-Term
Corporate Bond Index ETF (VCIT). This pick is my answer to Vanguard founder
Jack Bogle’s complaint that many of Vanguard’s bond index funds contain too
many low-yielding Treasuries. The average credit quality of the fund’s holdings
is single-A. The fund charges 0.12% annually for expenses and yields 3.1%. As
for how the fund would react to rising interest rates—the bête noir of most bond funds—Intermediate-Term
Corporate would probably lose about 6.5% of its value if interest rates were to
rise by one percentage point.
As far as allocation between stocks and bonds,
most investors should probably have 70% to 75% of their portfolio in stock
funds. But you’ll want to gradually reduce that as you approach retirement.
Even in retirement, though, most people should keep 50% to 60% of their
investments in stock funds.
20150101=盯5趨勢 不讓窮鬼纏身
20150101=盯5趨勢 不讓窮鬼纏身
隨著2015年腳步漸近，投資人都在問，美國能帶領全球平安迎接來年嗎？
美國經濟成長強勁，帶動股市今年迭創新高，堂堂邁入第六年的多頭走勢。史坦普500（S&P）指數已自2009年3月的低點翻漲兩倍。
華爾街策略師普遍預期美股漲勢將延續到明年，但投資人必須留意下列幾個現象：
★股市穩定 溫和走高
由於美國經濟持續好轉，策略師普遍預期明年股市繼續走高，但漲勢將趨向溫和。
史坦普500指數明年可望上漲6%至8%，低於今年預估的14%，由大型跨國企業領漲。
策略師也警告，由於進入成熟多頭市場，股價與市場波動性將相對較高，意味市場可能經歷幾波回檔修正。
★升息逼近 最大關鍵
美國經濟的狀況已能承擔較高借貸成本，策略師預期聯準會（Fed）升息的腳步正逐漸逼近，這將成為左右股市的最大關鍵。
貝萊德全球市場策略師孔睿思推測，Fed將於明年6月啟動升息，以每次升息1碼的速度，把利率從目前的0調高至1%。
★油價走勢 備受關注
油價大跌是今年最熱門的話題之一，雖然消費者因此蒙受其惠，但市場也擔憂全球金融體系可能會因此而面臨重大變革。明年最受關注的焦點是油價下跌究竟源自生產過剩，或者經濟不夠強勁導致消耗量不足？還有，如果油價繼續下探，那麼產油國是否會減產？
★海外商機 歐洲釋利
今年上半年歐洲經濟進入復甦階段，之後因俄羅斯-烏克蘭危機受到衝擊，但歐洲央行（ECB）已推出刺激經濟措施，且明年可能加碼執行，投資人應可鬆一口氣。對勇於冒險的投資人來說，現在是前進歐洲市場減便宜的時機，因為股市相對於美國便宜。
★債市表現 料續走揚
許多專家預測今年債市將會大跌，結果證明多數人看走眼。美國10年期公債殖利率不但沒如預測攀抵3.5%，反而降至2.18%左右。
但多數策略師仍預期明年公債殖利率走揚，達到2.5%至2.75%，理由是美國經濟好轉且Fed可望升息。
（財經新聞組整理）
隨著2015年腳步漸近，投資人都在問，美國能帶領全球平安迎接來年嗎？
美國經濟成長強勁，帶動股市今年迭創新高，堂堂邁入第六年的多頭走勢。史坦普500（S&P）指數已自2009年3月的低點翻漲兩倍。
華爾街策略師普遍預期美股漲勢將延續到明年，但投資人必須留意下列幾個現象：
★股市穩定 溫和走高
由於美國經濟持續好轉，策略師普遍預期明年股市繼續走高，但漲勢將趨向溫和。
史坦普500指數明年可望上漲6%至8%，低於今年預估的14%，由大型跨國企業領漲。
策略師也警告，由於進入成熟多頭市場，股價與市場波動性將相對較高，意味市場可能經歷幾波回檔修正。
★升息逼近 最大關鍵
美國經濟的狀況已能承擔較高借貸成本，策略師預期聯準會（Fed）升息的腳步正逐漸逼近，這將成為左右股市的最大關鍵。
貝萊德全球市場策略師孔睿思推測，Fed將於明年6月啟動升息，以每次升息1碼的速度，把利率從目前的0調高至1%。
★油價走勢 備受關注
油價大跌是今年最熱門的話題之一，雖然消費者因此蒙受其惠，但市場也擔憂全球金融體系可能會因此而面臨重大變革。明年最受關注的焦點是油價下跌究竟源自生產過剩，或者經濟不夠強勁導致消耗量不足？還有，如果油價繼續下探，那麼產油國是否會減產？
★海外商機 歐洲釋利
今年上半年歐洲經濟進入復甦階段，之後因俄羅斯-烏克蘭危機受到衝擊，但歐洲央行（ECB）已推出刺激經濟措施，且明年可能加碼執行，投資人應可鬆一口氣。對勇於冒險的投資人來說，現在是前進歐洲市場減便宜的時機，因為股市相對於美國便宜。
★債市表現 料續走揚
許多專家預測今年債市將會大跌，結果證明多數人看走眼。美國10年期公債殖利率不但沒如預測攀抵3.5%，反而降至2.18%左右。
但多數策略師仍預期明年公債殖利率走揚，達到2.5%至2.75%，理由是美國經濟好轉且Fed可望升息。
（財經新聞組整理）
20150101=英國金融時報「新年大預言」
20150101=英國金融時報「新年大預言」
英國「金融時報」（FT）發表新年大預言，預測2015年國際油價將跌破每桶50美元，歐洲央行將實施量化寬鬆貨幣政策，美國將率先升息，中國經濟成長率將跌破七等。
以下是金融時報預言：
1.油價是否會跌破每桶50美元？
預測：會。美國頁岩石油產量將持續增加，油國組織不大可能減產，大陸及其他新興市場的經濟成長不會加速，因此油價可能跌破50美元大關。但市場機制終將發揮作用，因此年底油價將高於年初。
2.歐洲央行將實施量化寬鬆(QE)政策？
預測：會。歐元區面臨超低通膨甚至通貨緊縮風險，央行總裁德拉基已宣布將把資產負債表規模擴大一兆歐元，如此央行便必須實施QE購買公債。
3.中國經濟成長率是否會跌破七？
預測：會。原因是國內負債激增，固定資產投資減緩，房地產銷售疲軟，製造業乏善可陳。北京為求保七，可能進一步放鬆貨幣政策，以刺激消費支出，但預料經濟成長率仍將略低於7%。
4.美國還是英國會率先升息？
預測：美國。美國聯準會的政策較可預期，英格蘭銀行卻反覆無常，且英國5月將選舉，因此英格蘭銀行可能會等待聯準會先「開槍」。
5.喜萊莉的政治勁敵是否會出現？
預測：不會。共和黨總統大選提名人要到2016年才會出線，而她在民主黨內部也沒有真正夠看的競爭者。
6.西非能否撲滅伊波拉疫情？
預測：會。全球已對疫區投入大量醫療資源及資金援助。伊波拉致死率雖高，但傳染力並非超強，因此有可能被撲滅。
7.穿戴科技是否將大紅？
預測：不會。蘋果iWatch將上市，但未必能使消費者覺得需要購買。真正有用的穿戴式設備迄今尚未出現。
英國「金融時報」（FT）發表新年大預言，預測2015年國際油價將跌破每桶50美元，歐洲央行將實施量化寬鬆貨幣政策，美國將率先升息，中國經濟成長率將跌破七等。
以下是金融時報預言：
1.油價是否會跌破每桶50美元？
預測：會。美國頁岩石油產量將持續增加，油國組織不大可能減產，大陸及其他新興市場的經濟成長不會加速，因此油價可能跌破50美元大關。但市場機制終將發揮作用，因此年底油價將高於年初。
2.歐洲央行將實施量化寬鬆(QE)政策？
預測：會。歐元區面臨超低通膨甚至通貨緊縮風險，央行總裁德拉基已宣布將把資產負債表規模擴大一兆歐元，如此央行便必須實施QE購買公債。
3.中國經濟成長率是否會跌破七？
預測：會。原因是國內負債激增，固定資產投資減緩，房地產銷售疲軟，製造業乏善可陳。北京為求保七，可能進一步放鬆貨幣政策，以刺激消費支出，但預料經濟成長率仍將略低於7%。
4.美國還是英國會率先升息？
預測：美國。美國聯準會的政策較可預期，英格蘭銀行卻反覆無常，且英國5月將選舉，因此英格蘭銀行可能會等待聯準會先「開槍」。
5.喜萊莉的政治勁敵是否會出現？
預測：不會。共和黨總統大選提名人要到2016年才會出線，而她在民主黨內部也沒有真正夠看的競爭者。
6.西非能否撲滅伊波拉疫情？
預測：會。全球已對疫區投入大量醫療資源及資金援助。伊波拉致死率雖高，但傳染力並非超強，因此有可能被撲滅。
7.穿戴科技是否將大紅？
預測：不會。蘋果iWatch將上市，但未必能使消費者覺得需要購買。真正有用的穿戴式設備迄今尚未出現。
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