Choosing The Right Dividend ETF

Choosing The Right Dividend ETF

Charles Sizemore , Contributor

Well, it happened — again. The 10-year Treasury fell all the way to 2.4% again on a string of bad geopolitical news and mixed economic data. The last time yields were this low was June of last year, in the early stages of the “Taper Tantrum.”

Could yields continue to go lower? Sure, they could. But it doesn’t matter. If you are an income investor with more than a five year horizon, you should be looking outside of the bond market for your income needs given the pitifully low yields on offer. And one area that still looks attractive at today’s prices is the world of dividend ETFs.

Company dividends — unlike bond interest — generally rise over time, giving dividend stocks far better long-term inflation protection than bonds.

Not all dividend stocks are the same; some are slow-growth dinosaurs that are little better than bonds with respect to their sensitivity to rising interest rates. Others are high-growth dynamos that share their bounty with their investors by continually raising their dividend. And in the same way, not all dividend ETFs are the same. Some are concentrated in slower-growth companies and sectors, while others are a who’s who list of quality growth stocks.

I don’t like choosing between growth and income; I want both. And today, I’m going to share some of my favorite dividend ETFs that I expect to deliver the two.

Any discussion of dividend ETFs should start with the granddaddy of them all, the iShares Select Dividend ETF (DVY). 

 DVY’s underlying index takes the universe of dividend-paying stocks with a positive dividend-per-share growth rate, a payout ratio of 60 percent or less, and at least a five year track record of dividend payment and then selects the 100 highest-yielding stocks.  The result is an ETF loaded with high-yielding, reliable dividend payers.

Not surprisingly, DVY is heavily weighted in utilities and defensive consumer staples, currently 34 percent and 16 percent of the portfolio, respectively.  The current dividend yield is 3.1%—significantly higher than what the 10-year Treasury pays.

As it is currently constructed, DVY is not likely to outperform the S&P 500 in a normal, rising market.  It should, however, hold up far better during a market rout—though this was not the case during the last bear market. DVY took a beating in 2008 because it had a high allocation to the financial sector at the time.

DVY is fine for current income.  But if it is growth you seek, try shares of the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG)—a long-time favorite of mine.  At 2.0 percent, VIG’s yield is not significantly higher than the S&P 500.  But you don’t buy VIG for its dividend today; you buy it for its dividend tomorrow

VIG is based on the Dividend Achievers Select Index, which requires its constituents to have at least 10 consecutive years of rising dividends.  The rationale is easy enough to understand.  There is no signal more powerful than that of a rising dividend.  Company boards hate parting with their cash; it’s a natural human instinct to stockpile it—just in case.  A willingness to part with the cash is a signal that management sees a lot more of it coming.

Paying a dividend requires discipline, as it means less cash to waste on value-destroying empire building.  And a rising dividend also shows that management knows its place.  They work for you, the shareholder, and increasing your dividend every year is a way of showing that they have their priorities straight.

By definition, any stock currently in the portfolio continued to raise its dividend even during the crisis years of 2008 and 2009.  These are companies that can survive Armageddon because, frankly, they already have.

There are drawbacks to VIG’s 10-year screening criteria.  A more recent dividend-raising powerhouse like Apple AAPL +0.73% lacks the history to be included in the Vanguard ETF. Also, as with any investment strategy that depends on historical data, there is no guarantee that a ten-year streak of raising dividends in the past will mean another good ten years of increased payouts going forward.

Still, if you’re looking for a portfolio high-quality stocks with a long history of rewarding shareholders, then VIG’s dividend growth methodology is a fine plan place to start.

VIG is not the only ETF to focus on dividend growth, of course.  PowerShares runs two competing products. The PowerShares Dividend Achievers ETF (PFM) is based on the same underlying index as VIG, though its fees are higher—0.55% vs. 0.10%.  It’s hard to justify losing almost half a percent a year in additional fees for what is substantially the same investment product.

The PowerShares High Yield Equity Dividend Achievers ETF (PEY) offers a smaller, higher-yielding slice of the dividend achievers universe, taking only the 50 highest-yielding stocks from the dividend achievers screen.  Though also more expensive than VIG with an expense ratio of 0.55%, it pays a higher yield at 3.4%.

And finally, Standard & Poor’s has its own competing dividend growth strategy called the Dividend Aristocrats, which goes even further than the Dividend Achievers. The S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index measures the performance of the companies within the S&P 500 that have increased their dividends every year for the last twenty five or more consecutive years.

The SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY) is an ETF that builds a portfolio out of the 50 highest-yielding Aristocrats.

So, if I love the 10-year Achiever screen, I should really love the 25-year Aristocrat screen, right?

Well, in principal, yes.  Though in practice, I find it to be a little too restricting.  Limiting your pool of stocks to companies that have raised their dividend for 25 consecutive years leaves you with a portfolio of older, slower-growing stocks.

Don’t get me wrong; there are some real gems in SDY’s portfolio, including long-time favorites of mine National Retail Properties, Target TGT -0.09% and Procter & Gamble PG +0.22%.  But overall, in SDY, you are left with a defensive portfolio that I would expect to lag during a normal bull market.

One brand new dividend ETF is the AdvisorShares Athena High Dividend ETF (DIVI), which I wrote about earlier this month when it launched.

DIVI is managed by Thomas Howard, a former academic turned money manager superstar and the author of Behavioral Portfolio Management. It is also very different from all other dividend ETFs I follow.  Virtually uniquely among dividend ETFs, DIVI includes equity REITs, mortgage REITs, master limited partnerships (MLPs), closed-end funds and business development companies (BDCs) in its investment universe, giving it a vastly different portfolio composition than its competitors.

Also uniquely among dividend ETF, DIVI employs a guru-following strategy that makes it similar in principle to Global X Top Guru Holdings Index ETF (GURU) and the AlphaClone Alternative Alpha ETF (ALFA), but with a more active management style. DIVI uses Howard’s behavioral research to identify the “high conviction” picks of active mutual fund managers, then selects high-dividend payers from the screen. DIVI then diversifies across sector, strategy and country to reduce risk.

DIVI is a little on the expensive side for a dividend ETF with a net expense ratio of 0.99%.  But given that DIVI is essentially an actively-managed mutual fund in an ETF wrapper, the expenses are not disproportionate.

Of course, no discussion of a dividend ETF is complete without a mention of the dividend yield.  DIVI has been trading for less than a month and thus has no historical dividend yield.  Based on the average yield of its top holdings, minus manager fees and expenses, I believe that it will generate in excess of 5% per year in dividends and perhaps more.

Charles Lewis Sizemore, CFA, is the editor of Macro Trend Investor and chief investment officer of the investment firm Sizemore Capital Management. Click here to receive his FREE weekly e-letter covering top market insights, trends, and the best stocks and ETFs to profit from today’s best global value plays.

What utility stocks pay the highest dividends?

By Investopedia

A:The utilities sector traditionally offers a high dividend payout. Dividends, which may come in the form of additional stock shares or, more commonly, cash, are allotments of a company’s earnings given out to shareholders. Typically, the dividend amount is quoted in relation to the dollar amount per share. It may also be stated as a percentage of the stock's current market value; this is known as the dividend yield. A company with consistently high dividend payouts offers greater income to persons holding the stock. For investors whose focus is income investing, the dividend yield of a stock is one of the most important considerations when choosing equity investments.

A number of utility stocks offer consistently high dividends to their shareholders. The top utility companies (in the fields of electric, gas, water and other basic utilities) offer an average dividend yield of 3-4%. Some of the utility stocks featuring the highest dividend payouts are PPL, Consolidated Edison, Duke Energy, Southern Company and Piedmont Natural Gas.

Most utility firms are well-established companies with solid revenues. These companies typically do not engage in major expansions and rarely have exponential growth opportunities. Because of their focus on stable revenues rather than on growth, the management teams of utility companies do not generally feel the need to retain large sums of revenue to be reinvested into the companies. Therefore, these companies are free to distribute greater percentages of their earnings in the form of dividends to shareholders.

Because of the general stability of their revenues, along with their traditionally high dividend payouts, sectors such as utilities and telecommunications are of particular interest to income investors. Utilities are among the lowest risk securities available, commonly having more than adequate cash flows, excellent credit ratings and stable revenues. Nonetheless, as within any market sector, some companies consistently outperform others. To obtain the best investment performance, investors carefully evaluate companies in order to select those with the greatest overall long-term prospects .

一顆石頭改變全世界(頁岩)

一顆石頭改變全世界(頁岩)

如果一百年，你只需要瞭解一個趨勢，這個趨勢就是：頁岩氣。它比金磚四國崛起，影響更深遠；它正在改變人類穿衣服、駕駛汽車、開飛機的歷史。為了探索這項改變，《商業週刊》團隊飛越一萬多公里，在美國德克薩斯州（Texas，簡稱德州）展開長達四千公里的搜尋。

一顆距今超過1.4億年、距離台灣一萬多公里遠的石頭，正在改變世界。它讓美國工業告別一百六十年的石油歷史，是日本廢除核電的解方；它能造飛機、手機，還能變身成可樂瓶子與衣服，經濟成長與生活少不了它。

它終結石油獨大的時代讓美股創新高、台商每天賺一億

中東石油影響力，因它快速消退，宣告美國、中國新兩大能源強權時代來臨；更不為人知的是，台灣人光是靠它，現在一天賺超過新台幣一億元，是台商的超級印鈔機；台灣人要廢除核電，它是我們不能少的解方；甚至連落入敗部的國光石化，都因為它而出現了復活的曙光。

這裡，更吸引蘋果、摩托羅拉、三星等大廠蜂擁而至，美國企業獲利能力大增，成了美國股市頻創歷史新高的秘密。近一年，標準普爾五百指數大漲二四％，其中原油天然氣精煉類股更飆升1.2倍，可見這顆石頭的威力。

四年後，美國不僅將奪回世界工業強權，亞洲市場基礎工業原料價格，也是美國說了算；七年後，石油第一大國變美國，中東、俄羅斯石油退場。這個改變，迫使日本、韓國與中國此刻都要跨海去搶天然氣，卡位戰打到二○一七年；不管台灣參不參與，你的主要競爭對手正在搶，未來競爭力與財富都已被這顆石頭緊緊繫在一起。

在聖安東尼奧，看到本尊花五十萬美元，鑽出鸚鵡螺化石

四月二十四日，我們在德州聖安東尼奧市（San Antonio），獨立鑽探公司Black Brush共同執行長暨營運長梅齊（Phil Mezey）拿出了一塊石頭，是從地底二千四百多公尺取出來的石頭。就是它改變了世界，直徑約十五公分、高度三十公分的石頭，竟然要花費五十萬美元才能取出來。這是最標準的頁岩，因為深藏地底，受到高壓影響，它的硬度跟花崗石一樣，仔細看，石頭上竟然有貝殼化石。

 

原來，這是奧陶紀到白堊紀時期留下來的，當時鸚鵡螺這類貝殼類生物大量繁殖，死亡之後成了地底的化石，現在它竟然成為你我生活都不可或缺的一部分。石頭跟生活有什麼關係？四月二十六日，我們到了德州墨西哥灣畔的舒適角（Point Comfort）找答案。經營之神台塑創辦人王永慶在這個地方，利用德州的石油，建構了石化上、中游的垂直體系，這是王永慶成為塑膠大王的秘密基地。

台塑美國「近水樓台」做衣服的纖維、賣洗澡用的瓦斯

起步是靠石油，然而我們在台塑美國德州廠，卻看到不同的景象。地下埋了一條又一條的管路，延伸到距離工廠約三十公里一處叫鷹灘（Eagle Ford）的地質板塊，這裡已探知藏有頁岩的面積比三萬六千平方公里的台灣還要大，這裡的頁岩被開採成為頁岩氣，輸送到台塑美國廠。

地面上，則蓋了全新頁岩氣分流工廠，將頁岩氣細分成為甲、乙、丙、丁烷；接著乙烷又進入裂解廠變成乙烯，丙烷脫氫則成了丙烯，丁烷送到碼頭準備出口。

用簡單的白話說，甲烷就是你我家中的天然瓦斯，可以發電也可以洗熱水澡、煮飯；乙烯是衣服、寢具、玩具的原料；丙烯則成為汽車、手機、電腦的外殼，還能再加工成為飛機、自行車的碳纖維；丁烷就是桶裝瓦斯。化石不僅變成氣，還在德州變成生活常見必需品，甚至現在美國生產鋼鐵，都用頁岩氣做為原料，食衣住行樣樣少不了它。

去年一整年，台塑美國賺了十億美元（約合新台幣三百億元），是台塑集團最賺錢的子公司，就是因為它用頁岩氣為原料，替代了高價的石油。一樣賺錢的還有過去從沒接受過訪問的前海基會董事長辜振甫女婿、華美化學（Westlake）董事長趙元修。跟台塑一樣，華美也是用頁岩氣做為原料。為什麼用石油跟用石頭差這麼多？台商亞洲化學董事長兼執行長楊朝諄說，用頁岩氣生產乙烯，成本只有亞洲的一半，再生產成為工業原料或半成品賣到亞洲，幾乎是一噸賺一噸。

天然氣比礦泉水便宜,價格僅亞洲1/4，賣不掉只好燒掉

頁岩氣有多便宜？我們到了鷹灘上的小鎮卡尼迪（Kenedy），草原的夜空竟然出現了一盞盞火炬，原來這裡的天然氣比礦泉水還便宜，因為美國目前只批准向簽署自由貿易協定（FTA）國家及日本出口天然氣，所以,有兩萬口頁岩氣井的鷹灘，產出來的天然氣不僅價格只有亞洲的四分之一，而且還多到賣不掉，多餘的只好就地燒掉。鷹灘還只是全美的一部分，十年前，美國天然氣不僅貴，還嚴重不足，在沿海蓋滿接收站，要從中東進口；現在整個大逆轉了，本來擁有進口執照的人，全部去關說華府，希望能改為出口執照。

在阿靈頓，遇見「田僑仔」準備養牛的地，探勘公司高價承租

天然氣多到白白燒掉，誇張到衛星照到美國竟是一片發亮，特別是德州與北達可達州。問題是，這樣便宜的天然氣是怎麼來的？我們前往德州的阿靈頓（Arlington）一探究竟。在德州阿靈頓，我們見到了來自台灣的電力學專家——德州大學阿靈頓分校電機系教授及能源系統研究中心主任李偉仁，他買了一塊十五英畝的農場，退休後要養美國牛。他做夢都沒想到，農場地下竟然有頁岩氣，探勘公司上門租了他的土地，讓他賺回買土地的錢，而且每個月可以收到兩張支票，第一是按比例分配開採頁岩氣銷售的利潤，第二是頁岩氣管路通過他的土地，必須付給他租金。

這樣的傳奇在美國處處都有，趙元修說，在墨西哥和德州邊境，還有養牛的農夫碰到銀行家主動上門，給他一張十億美元支票，他一夜致富。開採頁岩氣，成了德州全民運動，甚至蔓延到全美，「美國三分之一的土地下都有頁岩資源。」

有這樣好的事嗎？美國竟搖身變成一個超級天然氣與油田。石頭怎麼能變出天然氣來？

鑽頭轉彎，地底像八爪魚裂開洗出油和氣，不用再向中東進口

趙元修說：「探油行業在美國有百年以上的歷史，有部老電影叫《巨人》（Giant），我小時候看的，以前是打油井成功時，石油像噴水一樣，但現在是不可能的。」原來是石油快沒了，「現在是從一粒粒的黑點，把油吸出來，是一種採礦技術。洗出沾黏在石頭上的一點點石油，接著打破石頭，逼出天然氣，」趙元修說，這麼大的改變，取決於兩大技術：水準式鑽井（horizontal dril ling）與水力壓裂（frac

king）。水準式鑽井讓鑽頭可以轉彎，因此，鑽一個井，下面像個八爪魚，可蒐集四面八方的石油或天然氣；水力壓裂則是用水壓加特殊的化學液體爆破石頭。正確來說，這個技術叫非傳統性能源，是一種採礦技術，不管是頁岩，或含石油的油頁岩、砂，甚至其他化石，都可用這兩個技術提煉出天然氣與石油，因此,美國現在同時增加了石油與天然氣產能。

萊斯大學能源研究中心教授梅德洛克（Kenneth B. MedlockⅢ）說，其實美國很早就知道頁岩資源的存在，而且這兩個技術從一九六○年代就有研究，過去每次發生石油危機，美國總是會有人討論要發展這兩種技術開發頁岩氣與頁岩油的資源。但為什麼當初美國不開採？因為半世紀來，人們總是很幸運的在危機後發現巨大的油田，例如二次世界大戰之後，中東沙烏地阿拉伯發現石油，取代美國成為世界最大的產油國。二○○八年金融海嘯後，美國總統歐巴馬（Barack Obama）全力發展頁岩氣這個非傳統性能源，開啟了點石成金的傳奇，也同時想拆下了中東這顆「炸彈」。

在休士頓，發現便宜公式鑽井三十天能用三十年，兩年就回本

超級油田從深海、中東，變回到美國人的腳底下，水準式鑽井與水力壓裂技術更突飛猛進。在休士頓（Houston），我們拜訪了紐約證券交易所上市公司桑切斯能源（Sanchez Energy）執行長桑切斯（Tony SanchezⅢ），他說，原本鑽井要九十天，現在只要三十天，每口井的成本介於一千萬至一千五百萬美元，大約兩年就可回本，平均每一口井生產期高達三十年。

令人好奇的是，要租土地、鑽井，還要打破石頭才能產氣，成本似乎非常高，那麼要怎樣的價格才能賺錢？他說，只要油價在每桶四十至六十美元，每百萬英熱（MM Btu）的天然氣價格在四．五美元，開採頁岩氣和頁岩油就能賺錢。

所以,世界原油的價格變了，趙元修說，過去是美國自產的西德州輕原油（WTI）比北海布蘭特（Brent）貴；現在倒過來，兩者之間一度還差了二十美元。

特別便宜的是天然氣，楊朝諄說，假設要得到一樣的產出，目前美國天然氣的價格相當於油價每桶三十到四十美元。因此,美國工業告別石油，大量用天然氣做為原料，也告別了中東。

巴菲特發運輸財火車拉百個原油槽車往沿海跑

在德州的草原上，我們看到股神巴菲特（Warren Buffett）如何掌握趨勢，賺這一波石頭財。本來美國要的石油，得從中東裝上油輪，運往美國沿岸的煉油廠。能源運輸公司Nu Star執行長安納斯塔西奧（Curt Anastasio）說，現在完全相反，德州和美國北部不斷生產出原油，完全改變了美國的石油地圖，他們以火車運輸石油，從德州、從內陸到沿海煉油廠，每天達一百萬桶的運量。

他說，從沒見過這麼大的火車運量需求，全是為了將頁岩開採出的石油運出產地，到美國沿岸。因此巴菲特的伯靈頓北方聖達菲公司（BNSF）發了運輸財，到處可見到BNSF拉著上百個原油槽車往沿海跑。

接著巴菲特宣佈，BNSF全面使用天然氣取代柴油，成本足足可以省八成。除了火車，公用交通系統、公車也在改變，德州石油大亨皮肯斯（T. Boone Pickens），正在默默推動的美國新替代交通燃料方案，沿著高速公路蓋天然氣加氣站，讓美國運輸業改用天然氣。

我們到了聖安東尼奧的天然氣公車VIA城市運轉公司，見證了這個趨勢。公車改用天然氣；還有發電廠，電力公司CPS告訴我們，天然氣發電是未來成長最快的能源，核能停止擴張；太陽能、風力等再生能源放緩腳步。世界的經濟版圖、甚至主導世界能源的霸，也因此改變了。國際能源署（IEA）預估，美國到二○二○年將超越沙烏地阿拉伯和俄羅斯，成為全球最大石油生產國。

在奧斯汀，目睹製造業回流過去沒人投資，現在是問誰還沒來

在美國，我們看到的不是能源霸權，影響最大的是美國製造業復興與經濟，世界製造業重心正從中國往美國移。「這是一九七九年石油危機以來，最大的投資熱潮。」趙元修說。過去從沒有人說要到德州投資，現在反而是問，誰還沒來。Energy Capital執行長平克頓（John W. Pinkerton）說，此刻有十三家頁岩氣的分流廠正在德州擴廠，每家約投資三億美元。此外，還有八家類似六輕的投資案也宣佈擴廠。簡單的解釋，美國最快將在四年內成為全世界基礎工業原料的最大生產國，也是增長最快的地方，預計到二○一七年，增加八百萬噸，相當於目前中國一半的產能。成本只有中國一半，美國製造復興有了堅強的基礎。對於台灣來說，美國快成為亞洲工業原料市場的決定者，「一旦亞洲產能過剩，可能面臨一場美國屠殺亞洲業者的殘酷戰爭，連中國也逃不了，」楊朝諄相當擔憂這樣的事情發生。因此一個現象出現了——美國石化廠各個成了超級印鈔機，亞洲石化業卻在損益之間掙紮。

州政府招商講中文祭出免稅牌，歡迎國光石化移民

在德州還出現了一種景象，美國官員比中國官員會招商，二十年前招商的中國官員都會學一點台語，拉近跟台商的關係；德州博爾郡經濟發展局局長馬奎斯（David Marquez）則是用中文名片，還要我們要用中文稱呼他「馬局長」。

這個馬局長已經招了日商、韓商、台商東元、中國企業到德州投資，德州州政府經濟發展及旅遊部總監戴默森（Aaron Demerson）更直接用中文告訴我們：「歡迎國光石化到德州投資。」戴默森說，靠著德州產石油、天然氣的財政優勢，可以不收州稅，等於比別的州少一○％左右的成本，而且德州有機會就會減稅，他說，最近德州議會正在討論一項十億美元的減稅方案。免稅、減稅跟當年中國一樣，再加上原料與能源又便宜，五月二十二日，蘋果執行長庫克（Tim Cook）首度透露，Mac電腦也將移回德州生產組裝。接著摩托羅拉宣佈也要在德州設廠，生產首部在美國裝嵌的智慧型手機。韓國三星靠剛剛才投產的德州奧斯汀（Austin）廠，一舉在二十八奈米製程產能超越台積電，而且,還準備再加碼投資，繼續挑戰台積電的晶圓代工霸主地位。一個遠在一萬公里外的石頭革命，竟赤裸裸上演著一場三星與台積電的跨國大廝殺。現在連中國的紡織廠都來了，「馬局長」說，中國海陽市一家紡織廠也前來投資，名字是Shantex，來德州做成衣外套。

代價是污染和地震若公開化學配方，技術會被學走

龐大經濟效益背後是環保爭議，耗水、污染，是這顆石頭能不能蓬勃發展的障礙。梅德洛克說，當注入岩層、使用過的水被抽取回來之後，卻沒有足夠的設施來淨化，或者排掉這些水，水汙染疑慮從沒停止過。

其次是地震問題。地震並不是來自於水力壓裂，而是當水力壓裂使用過的水取出之後，注入到另一個廢水井，不幸的是，有些廢水井裡頭有斷層，當水注進去時，造成兩塊斷層滑動，結果產生地震。

雖然不是每個井都有斷層問題或造成地震，但李偉仁說，以往沒有地震的德州、奧克拉荷馬州，現在也有了。這是石頭革命所必須付出的代價。另外一個聲音出來了，要求探勘公司公佈化學配方，以解除環境污染的疑慮。問題是，化學配方一公開，中國、俄羅斯等國家就可以取得美國研究多年的秘方，俄羅斯、歐盟、阿根廷也都有頁岩氣，而中國才是蘊藏最多的國家，屆時最便宜的頁岩氣不再只屬於美國，超級油田與能源大國可能變中國，也讓製造霸權之爭變成未知數。

一場石頭帶來的世界大改變才剛上演，世界的財富、經濟版圖，甚至霸權都會因此而改變。不僅生活中的必需品或未來的電力來源都被牽動，財富也因此改變，頁岩氣已經帶來了全球化的成本與製造大革命，沒有人能避得開。

20150118=美、中在新石油戰爭的得失

20150118=美、中在新石油戰爭的得失

美國股市16日回升，道指升190點，S&P 500升26點；原油價格反彈，回升至每桶49.69元，是美股回升的主因。油價自去年6月以來已跌60%，2014年全球對石油需求的增產量，只及實際需要增產量的一半；換言之，市場出現嚴重供過於求，以致價格持續下跌。石油是全球最重要地緣政治商品，油價大跌，俄國、伊朗、委內瑞拉經濟重挫，已形同新的「石油戰爭」，產油國和耗油國各有得失，誰是輸家或贏家？中美兩國誰得誰失？

第一，未來一段時間，世界原油不大可能減產，油價很可能維持每桶80元以下，60元是重要關口。為什麼產油國不減產？石油輸出口國組織(OPEC)沙烏地阿拉伯、科威特和阿聯酋原有意減產，但沙烏地自1980年代石油危機採用減產手段後，發現效果不大，自此未再使用；過去40年，三國已從高油價累積大量財富，可坐視油價下跌不懼。至於其他OPEC成員國，則因財力不足，不但無力減產，甚至還須增產，才能維持國家財政收支平衡和高生活水平。況且，美俄等產油大國今年估計也不會減產。

第二，美國成全球最大產油國。國際能源署(IEA)報告，美國2013年平均每日產油1003萬桶，全球排名第三，僅落後1150萬桶的沙烏地和1080萬桶的俄國。但拜頁岩油增產所賜，美國今年可超過沙烏地和俄國，成為第一；未來數年，美國產油量還會增加，2020年將增至1160萬桶，沙烏地則減至1060桶，俄國減至1040桶。值得注意的，美國雖是最大產油國，但石油消耗量也全球最大，2013年平均日耗1890萬桶；換言之，產油不夠自用，平均每日須進口890萬桶。進口量大，油價大跌，購油支出大減，是美國成為低油價贏家的原因。

第三，低油價對美國利多於弊。低油價是好是壞，目前存在爭論。油價大降減少駕駛人汽油費支出，有助降低物價，但過低油價顯然不利股市，可能導致經濟收縮。哈佛大學經濟學家桑默斯(Larry Summers)認為，低油價可成為刺激美國經濟的重要因素；聯準會結束長達五年半的買債計畫，準備於今年中提高利率，如果美國撤消維持39年的石油出口禁令，讓美國公司將石油出口(國產油因為不能出口，賣給本國煉油廠的批發價較低)，將可對美國經濟產生巨大刺激作用。桑默斯認為，大衰退以來，美國經濟復甦緩慢，至少有10%經濟潛力未被開發，撤銷出口石油禁令，會成美國經濟發動機，再次提升美國經濟力量。

第四，中國是低油價最大贏家。中國2013年日產原油420萬桶，但進口1080萬桶，是全球第二大石油消耗國，產油量不夠消耗，須每日進口690萬桶，進口數量大，從低油價獲得的好處也大。中國2013年進口石油支出2220億美元，當時每桶110元，如以大跌價後每桶60元計，支出可減為1250億元，減幅達1000億元。另外，中國三大石油公司中石油、中石化和中海油正在國際市場搶購原油，譬如上月在新加坡原油市場，購入破紀錄的47船(cargoes)中東原油(相當於2400萬桶)；這是趁低價吸納，用作戰略儲備。

第五，產油國減價戰，競相削價，向中國銷售原油。中國進口原油，一半來自中東，25%來自非洲；油價大跌後，中東和非洲產油國激烈競爭中國市場，不惜減價，譬如奈及利亞輸往中國原油，去年5月到11月，減價達80%；西非到中國的運油航路較長，中東到中國的運油航路較短，西非本就沒有中東的優勢，以致去年從西非到中國的運油成本增加50%。

第六，未來兩三年，中國對石油需求不會減少。中國經濟正在放緩，2014年成長率估計只有7.3%，2015年估計為7.1%，經濟放緩導致石油消耗量減少。不過，一般估計，中國政府會採取刺激經濟措施，避免經濟急速收縮，所以未來兩三年成長率，估計仍會保七，因此對石油需求仍強勁。最新資料顯示，中國2014年12月平均每日進口719萬桶原油，打破紀錄；2014年全年則進口3億1000萬噸原油，也創歷史新高；2015年的進口量，估計會增加5%。

綜合而言，中國是這波低油價最大贏家，不但大幅減少購油支出，還趁機大量搜購原油，作為儲備，並藉搜購石油，強化對中東和非洲的影響力。至於美國，低油價也利多於弊，除了民眾加油費大幅減少，移作其他消費刺激經濟，頁岩石油的開採利潤雖萎縮，但更提振美國的政經總體實力。中美都成為贏家。

20141218=Our picks for fixed-income investors

By Adam Zoll   December 18, 2014 8:53 AM

So far this week, we've identified some of the best U.S. and foreign stocks and stock funds available to individual investors. But no survey of quality investment options would be complete without also looking at fixed-income vehicles, and bond funds in particular, which can provide ballast and diversification--not to mention income--to a portfolio.

For some individual investors, owning individual bonds may make sense. The problem is that investors may not have the time or inclination to research individual bond issues, whereas information and analysis on individual stocks is often readily available. That's why owning bonds through a mutual fund or an ETF run by an active manager or that tracks a broadly diversified index of bonds makes sense for many investors. (For more on deciding between individual bonds and bond funds, read this article by Christine Benz, Morningstar's director of personal finance.)

To help guide you toward some of the best bond funds available to individual investors today--meaning those rated Gold, Silver, or Bronze by Morningstar's bond-fund analysts--we've divided them into some key groupings below. We've excluded long-term bond funds for now due to their high sensitivity to rising interest rates, which many experts expect to see in the coming year (and despite the fact that long-term bonds have been among the best-performing bond categories this past year).

Active Intermediate-Term Bond FundsGiven all the interest-rate uncertainty, choosing a bond fund that is actively managed makes perfect sense for some investors. An active manager can tilt the fund's portfolio toward or away from shorter-duration issues and/or take calculated risks toward or away from lower-quality fare as he or she sees fit. Active management isn't for everyone, to be sure, but if ever there was a time to stick with quality active bond-fund managers, this is it. Morningstar's analyst team recommends the list of actively managed intermediate-term bond funds found here (Premium Membership required). It includes the funds below. (As with all the lists found in this article, only non-institutional share classes that are open to new investors are included.)

Dodge & Cox Income (DODIX): This fund's management team invests with a three- to five-year time horizon, balancing the goal of outperforming the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index with minimizing the risk of loss over that stretch. They also place an emphasis on income as a driver of total returns. In that vein, they aim to assemble a portfolio that delivers more yield than the index.

Fidelity Total Bond (FTBFX): Manager Ford O'Neil keeps this fund's duration close to that of its Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond benchmark but is more adventurous when it comes to credit risk. The fund has the flexibility to buy emerging-markets bonds and can invest up to 20% in below-investment-grade debt. O'Neil, a Fidelity veteran, draws on the firm's deep bench of managers and analysts, including its well-respected government and high-yield teams, for input on valuations and security selection.

Index Intermediate-Term Bond FundsAs with stock index funds, bond index funds typically have a build-in pricing advantage as compared with their actively managed competitors. For those who prefer a passively managed intermediate-term bond fund, our analysts recommend the following.

Vanguard Total Bond Market Index (VBMFX): This fund attempts to replicate the performance of the Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Float Adjusted Index, a broad proxy for the investment-grade U.S. bond market. This index includes investment-grade corporate, government, and agency debt denominated in U.S. dollars. However, it excludes agency and mortgage-backed securities held by the Fed. The portfolio skews heavily toward government and securitized bonds--70% of the portfolio--much greater than the intermediate-bond category average. That gives the fund a higher-quality portfolio.

International-Bond Funds
Many investors take a distinctly U.S.-centric view when it comes to owning bond funds, but funds that own primarily foreign bonds can add diversification--and higher yields, in some cases--to a portfolio as compared with those owning primarily U.S. issues. Our analyst picks in the world-bond and emerging-markets bond categories can be found here, and include the following.

Fidelity New Markets Income (FNMIX): Manager John Carlson has owned as much as a low-teens stake in emerging-markets local-currency debt in the past, but hard-currency sovereign bonds remain this fund's bread and butter. That focus dates back to Carlson's 1995 start on this fund and goes against the recent proliferation of local-currency funds, which provide diversification away from the U.S. dollar. That said, the fund does court other risks. Carlson is willing to take on plenty of credit exposure if he thinks the price is right, for example.

Templeton Global Bond (TPINX): Manager Michael Hasenstab doesn't construct this portfolio with traditional issuance-weighted global-bond benchmarks in mind, which are skewed toward the world's most indebted developed markets. Instead, he and his team aim to identify value among currencies, sovereign credit, and interest rates in countries with healthy or improving fundamentals that they think the market doesn't appreciate. (This fund may carry a sales load.)

Credit-Sensitive Bond FundsWhile some funds focus on the yield curve--the correlation between bond maturities and yields--others are more focused on credit quality. Typically, lower-rated bond issuers must pay higher yields in order to attract buyers willing to take on added credit risk. Funds that invest a significant portion of assets in high-yield issues may be found in the high-yield, multisector bond, or nontraditional bond fund categories. A list of our analysts' favorites among this group, which includes the funds below, can be found here.

Loomis Sayles Strategic Income (NEFZX): This fund's managers employ a value-driven, credit-intensive approach and are always on the lookout for securities and currencies they believe are undervalued. With the flexibility to build significant stakes in junk bonds, convertibles, foreign currencies, and even equities, this fund is typically one of the most aggressive offerings in Morningstar's multisector bond category. The fund has a strong long-term performance record, although its penchant for credit and currency risk makes it vulnerable during flights to quality. (This fund may carry a sales load.)

Metropolitan West High Yield Bond (MWHYX): Longtime managers Steve Kane and Laird Landmann make big adjustments to this fund's overall portfolio depending on the current stage of the credit cycle and where they find the best bargains. The team's flexible approach and patience with its positioning hasn't yielded such impressive results over the past few years. But over the long term, the team's smart, valuation-driven moves have resulted in strong results.

Short-Term Bond FundsFor fixed-income investors worried about rising interest rates, a short-term bond fund (or even an ultrashort bond fund) is often seen as a safe haven. Yet, as Christine Benz discusses in this article, some short-term bond funds dip into lower-quality issues in an attempt to boost yields, thus courting credit risk. For a list of our analysts' favorite short-term bond funds, click here. It includes the following.

T. Rowe Price Short-Term Bond (PRWBX): When credit markets take a beating, this fund shines; but it tends to lag peers during credit-fueled rallies. A focus on income leads to a portfolio heavy in investment-grade corporates and securitized products, like mortgage- and asset-backed securities, relative to its benchmark.

Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index (VBISX): This fund attempts to mirror the performance of the Barclays U.S. 1-5 Year Government/Credit Float Adjusted Index, targeting short-term, investment-grade government, corporate, and securitized bonds that are denominated in U.S. dollars and weighting its holdings by float-adjusted market capitalization. As a result of this approach, the portfolio skews heavily toward Treasury bonds, which account for about 70% of the portfolio--much greater than the short-term bond category average.

超越大盤 非績效重點 by 記者胡毓玲／綜合報導

超越大盤 非績效重點 by 記者胡毓玲／綜合報導

投資人多以「超越大盤」做為評估績效的重要指標，有專家提醒，跑贏三大指數並非重點，應定期檢視投資組合表現，再依個人情況進行調整。

JFL Total Wealth Management總裁林奇（Jerry Lynch）指出，史坦普500、那斯達克與道瓊工業三大指數，主要追蹤大型企業，且不包括新興市場、小規模企業與固定收益投資，僅占廣大投資選項的一小部分，因此單靠三指數衡量投資表現，是不切實際的。

投資人通常基於幾項標準配置投資組合。針對風險耐受性，若個人最多能接受20%損失，建議三大指數成分股僅可占整體投資的一半，此時只要投資收益達大盤50%，績效即屬良好。

若考量收入需求，光靠史坦普500成分股平均2%的配息，可能無法滿足生活花費。許多人的投資組合囊括高配息股、房產投資信託（REITs）與固定收益投資等標的，此時跑不跑贏指數，意義不大。

分散風險也是關鍵。投資人若單選擇三大指數成分股，股市一旦走跌便會損失慘重。

林奇建議，以指數衡量投資績效，須就對應的投資領域及期間進行比較，此外也要仔細審視個別資產表現，定期調整配置以達到設定目標。

股市背離經濟 「牽狗論」示警

股市背離經濟 「牽狗論」示警

德國股神科斯托蘭尼〈Andre Kostolany〉，在其著作「一個投機者的告白」中，曾以老人與狗，來形容股票市場與實體經濟之間的關係。

他認為老人代表經濟，小狗代表股市；小狗時而跑在老人面前，時而跑在老人後面，有時則在老人身旁打轉，但無論小狗走得多遠，只要主人持續往前走，小狗總會回到老人身邊。

若能明白這套「牽狗論」，也看懂經濟與股市的關係。

據MarketWatch報導，美國經濟有足夠動能，讓今年比去年更好。

然而，同樣情況卻不必然適用於股市。

去年第二季美國國內生產總值〈GDP〉成長4.6%之後，第三季成長年率更上升至5%。這創下了自2003年以來，最佳半年度表現。

近幾個月，美國經濟展望明顯好轉。汽油價格下跌推升消費者信心與購買力。房價與股市上漲，也強化經濟表現。

股市表現也持續優於經濟。2014年，道瓊工業指數上漲7.5%，為連續第六年上漲，並創下自1999年以來最長上漲期間。這70個月，創下二次大戰以來，第四長的多頭市場。

但美股本益比已接近20倍，較1880年以來平均的15倍，高33%。

美股似乎已反應了經濟與企業獲利。投資人不宜再將經濟改善，化為對股市的期待。〈記者李玉焜〉

20150110=巴菲特：股市如醉漢

20150110=巴菲特-股市如醉漢

巴菲特：股市這個「酒醉瘋子」，他高興時該賣，他沮喪時該買。

巴菲特（Warren Buffett）究竟採取何種投資哲學，為自己賺進740億財富？「股神」指點迷津，稱股市這個「酒醉瘋子」興致高昂時就賣東西給他，趁他沮喪就向他買東西，不必有道德包袱。 財經網Benzinga報導，巴菲特上個月現身底特律，與網路房貸公司Quicken Loans董事長吉伯特（Dan Gilbert）及總裁兼營銷長法納（Jay Farner）在節目上對談。當他被問及如何帶來高達740億元身價的投資哲學，這位股市大師直言，不要跟隨新聞或分析師起舞，持續累積資本才是王道。 散戶有何投資妙法？巴菲特說：「不要關切報紙頭條或電視上那些人或任何事，而是每個月騰出一點錢，我會選擇投資低成本的指數型基金（ETF）。倘若你的整個職涯經常性地這麼做，你必定擁有一筆龐大資本。」 股神進一步提醒投資人，勿試圖預估市場漲跌時點或是單挑幾支特定股票，「只要每個月留下X元來投資，你將會擁有非常舒適的人生。」 「奧馬哈先知」強調分散投資組合的重要，指多數人面對上千種事業類別，最佳方式就是跨產業投資，股市擺在眼前可忽略它，每天股價自有變動。 投資大眾如何面對股市漲跌？他形容「股市先生」有點像「喝醉酒的瘋子」，時而興奮時而沮喪，「買低賣高」就對了，「當他變得極度高昂時，你就賣東西給他，如果他轉而鬱悶時，你就向他買東西，沒有道德約束可言。」 巴菲特曾說投資必須擺脫情緒的控制，這回他又以此為談話作結，「情緒具傳染性，投資這檔事不該與情緒扯上關連。」

10 Stocks Every Millennial Should Add to Their Portfolio Right Now

10 Stocks Every Millennial Should Add to Their Portfolio Right Now

DALLAS (TheStreet) -- As a millennial, how should I invest?

Millennial investors -- that is, those who were born between 1980 and 2000 and have been investing in just the past 15 years -- have only known extreme unpredictability. Many of them grew up in the 1990s, during one of the greatest economic and market expansions in U.S. history. They saw the dot-com boom and then bust, the ravages of 9/11 and the global war on terror. They lived through the Great Recession, the flash crash and now are seeing markets hit new highs and a roaring economy.

That's a lot of volatility to take in in a short period of time. You could forgive millennials for being skittish investors.

But, like every generation before it, millennials need to be in the markets. Investing in equities has long been a road to prosperity for Americans and millennials will be no different. But which stocks should millennials own?

As a millennial myself, I can tell you that we have been trained through the ups and downs of the market and the constant news media coverage around it to chase the upside and ride the downside. We would have been better off doing the exact opposite. So how do you invest as a millennial?

First, you should start off with a solid set of stocks that you can depend on for the long haul, a value investing portfolio that, if prudently managed, should earn you good returns for the length of your life.

Here are 10 stocks that every millennial should own.

Exxon Mobil (XOM)

The company has built itself a reputation. Exxon currently delivers a 3% dividend yield, undergoes low selling pressure, and doesn't panic when oil volatility strikes. Another attractive feature is its price-to-earnings ratio which is 11.0, which is attractive. Given the current global oil situation, the stock has been affected and is down 5% over the quarter. Yet, the oil giant is predicting earnings-per-share growth to be a little over 4% in 2015, despite its already big size. As the cost of oil starts to trend back upward, so will Exxon Mobil.

Apple (AAPL)

With the recent launch of the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus, Apple continues to experience record levels of demand. The technology giant sold 39.27 million iPhone devices in the last quarter alone. The number represents an increase of 26% on a sell-through basis. Additionally, the company proved that its demand is continuing with full momentum as it increased sales guidance. As far as valuation goes, the company is attractive at 14.9 price-to-earnings ratio.

Google (GOOG)

Google seems to be very reasonably priced. The company has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 18.0. Investors in Google have been fearful as the company has reported earnings below estimates for the past few quarters. The company's shares have also suffered a minor setback but might be poised for a major comeback as the shares are down.

Rocket Fuel (FUEL)

Shares of Rocket Fuel have consistently been in turmoil as the company lowered its guidance and its full-year outlook. The company has only been public for a year and has already seen highs of nearly $72.00 and lows of $13.75. The ad-buying platform debuted about a year ago with an initial public offering price of $29.00.

Actavis plc (ACT)

Actavis is a stock packed with growth. The company has a diverse portfolio of drugs. The company has made some smart and strong decisions such as its recent acquisition of Forest Labs. The company's net revenue has increased to a staggering $3.68 billion, an 83% jump.

eBay (EBAY)

The online auction site announced back in Oct. that it would be splitting itself and payment processor PayPal up into two different companies. eBay has a strong balance sheet and will only continue to strengthen while revenues will do the same. With PayPal transforming, is eBay prepping itself as a buyout target?

Kate Spade (KATE)

The handbag seller is going neck and neck with brands like Coach  (COH) and Michael Kors (KORS) . The stock rallied 18 percent on its last quarterly earnings release as the company reported momentous sales growth. Kate still has room to grow, the company recently announced a deal with Gap, and additionally plans to expand its products into Asia.

SolarCity Corp (SCTY)

Unlike others in its industry, the company is fundamentally solid with a great balance sheet. Although shares of the company have proven to be very volatile, SolarCity will prove to be a great investment as the company continues to gain long-term contracts. Merill Lynch recently issued a new price target of $95.00, while shares are currently trading near $50.00. Shares of the company were higher this past Friday as the company announced its partnership with Bank of America. Bank of America has agreed to finance $400 million of its solar power projects through 2015.

Kellogg (K)

The company is rock solid. It has been around for nearly a century. The company is currently trading at discounted valuations compared to previous levels. Kellogg also boasts a dividend yield of nearly 3.2%. The company has historically traded at an average price-to-earnings ratio of 18.5, with that in mind the stock is currently trading at a mere 13.3 ratio.

20140214=3 ETFs You Can Love Forever=VIG MOAT SCHV

3 ETFs You Can Love Forever=VIG MOAT SCHV

by Neena Mishra   Published on February 14, 2014 | No Comments

VIG MOAT SCHV

ETFs have revolutionized the way we invest. With their low cost, ease of trading, tax-efficiency and transparency, they have surged in popularity in recent years. There are currently 1,567 exchange traded products listed in the U.S., with almost $1.7 trillion in assets under management.

ETFs now represent 15% of all trading in the market. There are some ETFs that are suitable for short-term market timing strategies. At the same time, there are a number of excellent ETF options for long-term, buy-and-hold investors. (Read: Best ETF Strategies for 2014)
 
What should investors consider before investing in ETFs for long-term? Here are some factors investors should look at for narrowing down to the best ETFs, of course in addition to their investment objectives.  

Are Cheaper Funds Better?

Expense ratios are an important factor in the return of an ETF and in the long-term, cheaper funds can significantly outperform their more expensive cousins, other things remaining the same. (Read: 3 Biggest Mistakes of ETF Investing)

The difference in total returns between high cost and low cost ETFs (after deducting expenses) becomes very significant as we increase the holding period. In additon to expense ratios, investors should also look at trading costs but they are not so significant for buy-and-hold investments.

What Index does the ETF track?

Make sure that the index the ETF tracks is simple and transparent. You may want to avoid ETFs tracking exotic indexes or risky strategies, unless you are a professional trader. Similarly, ETFs with a very narrow focus—such as livestock futures—are not meant for long-term investors.

Issuer and Assets under Management

Low AUM is often one of the reasons for fund closure. Generally ETFs with less than $50 million in assets are not profitable enough for their sponsors.

Similarly, investors should look at the sponsor too. An ETF issued by a strong, profitable sponsor is less likely to shut down.

Inverse and Leveraged ETFs

They offer some excellent options for market timing and hedging but they are not suitable for long-term holding. Similarly ETFs that track futures contracts are not meant for buy-and-hold investors due to issues like contango. (Read: 3 Niche ETFs that will keep flying)

Below we have highlighted 3 excellent ETFs that are excellent for long-term holding. 

Watch Your capital Grow with Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG - ETF report)
 
Dividend stocks and ETFs have experienced some headwinds since the start of taper talk, but investors need to remember that dividends have accounted for more than 40% of the total returns from the market over a long time horizon and thus they should be a part of any long-term investment portfolio. 

Further dividend payments are expected to continue to increase in the coming months as most large US companies have huge cash piles on their balance sheet and are in a position to increase payouts to shareholders.

However, in my view, ETFs that hold stocks with a high dividend growth potential have much better outlook compared with ETFs that focus on high dividend yielding stocks. Most high-yield ETFs focus on sectors that are likely to underperform in the rising rates environment.

VIG holds large high quality companies that have a record of increasing dividends for at least 10 years.

Current top holdings include Abbott Labs, PepsiCo, Proctor& Gamble and Coca-Cola. With its current strong focus on cyclical sectors like consumer goods/services industrials and energy, this ETF is poised to do well if the economy in general and labor markets in particular continue to improve. It has miniscule exposure to rate sensitive sectors like Utilities and Telecom.
 
With an expense ratio of 0.10%, this is one of the cheapest funds in this space. The dividend yield at 2.2% is not remarkable, but this fund is better suited for investors who seek long-term capital appreciation along with income and not just high current yield. 

The ETF made its debut way back in 2006 and now manages more than $23 billion in assets.

VIG is a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) ETF.

Invest like Warren Buffet with Market Vectors Wide Moat ETF (MOAT - ETF report)
 
The term “economic moat” was popularized by Warren Buffet who said that he seeks "economic castles protected by unbreachable 'moats'.” In simple words moat is a unique competitive advantage that allows a company to outperform others in the same industry over time.
 
Thanks to MOAT, investors can now own a diversified group of such potential winners. Launched in April 2012, MOAT now has $600 million in assets which are invested in equal-weighted exposure in 20 least-expensive wide-moat companies. These are mostly large-cap companies with sustainable competitive advantage in their respective industries.
 
MOAT has highest allocation to technology sector (25%), followed by healthcare (21%) and energy (15%). With an expense ratio of 49 basis points, this product is expensive compared with two others on this list, but with its excellent investment strategy, it is poised to deliver solid returns to investors.
 
The index strategy has worked in the longer term. In five years through December 2013, the Moat index had an average annual return of 22.72% versus 17.94% for the S&P index. The ETF has also beaten the broader market since inception.

Enjoy Value Premium with Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Value ETF (SCHV)

Numerous academic studies have shown that value stocks have delivered higher returns with lower volatility compared with growth stocks over the long term in almost all the markets studied. Given their proven performance over long term, value stocks and funds should be a predominant part of any ‘core’ portfolio.

SCHV provides broad exposure to large-cap U.S. stocks with value style characteristics. Launched in December 2009, the fund has so far been able to attract assets worth $810 million, which are invested in 359 holdings.

With an annual fee of just 7 basis points, this product is the cheapest option in the large-cap value space. Additionally, the dividend yield at 2.3% is quite attractive. Financials (24%), Consumer Staples (11%), Energy (11%) and Consumer Discretionary (11%) are the top four sectors, the fund has invested in.

SCHV is a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) ETF.

Bottom Line

Investment advisers often warn--“don’t fall in love with a stock”. Does that apply to ETFs as well? Usually not, since ETFs with their diversified holdings eliminate company-specific risk to a large extent. 

ETFs discussed above are excellent options for buy-and-hold investors. There is nothing not to love about them.